2006 U.S. Elections: California Governor

Getting back to the states, I'll now take a look at California and one of its key races in the upcoming 2006 elections.

Governor: Of course Arnold Schwarzenegger's bid for re-election is the one race everyone will be looking at in California. According to some polls, his numbers have been climbing up in recent weeks, but they're still below 50%, which opens up the possibility for a tight race this coming November. The question is, who will face the incumbent movie star governor?

Before the governor can face a Democratic challenger, there is the possibility that he might face a challenge from a right-wing candidate in the Republican primary. Conservative forces in the state have been pushing for a challenge, and the name of Mel Gibson has popped up in some circles. Whether a challenge comes or not, it is highly unlikely that Arnold would lose such a race. Arnold's star power and his centrist credentials are too good for the Republicans to give up, no matter how low his poll numbers are.

As for the Democrats, there have been two main contenders in the race for the Democratic nomination thus far, State Treasurer Phil Angelides and State Controller Steve Westly. From what I could tell, it seems Mr. Westly is running as the centrist candidate while Mr. Angelides is running as the more clear cut progressive. Both have been in the running for months now, but there is always the possibility that a new contender could enter the ranks. However, with only about 4 months now until the primary, it will be difficult for any new candidates to make any headway. So if movie star Warren Beatty plans on entering the race, he better do so now. So who will actually obtain the Democratic nomination? Mr. Angelides should be considered the favorite in the primary since primary voters tend to be more ideological, meaning many of the voters would be left-wing voters. But general election voters tend to vote for centrist candidates, so that would help the chances of Mr. Westly. So the question really is, should Democrats come in hitting Arnold from the left and energize the base, or should they take the centrist path and build a broader coalition? It's a question that will be answered on Tuesday, June 6.

Whoever ends up facing the governor should still be able to provide a good challenge, especially if Arnold's poll numbers remain the way they are. The governor just suffered a bad defeat last year on all his propositions so it will probably lead to a close election this year. The results may even set a trend for the rest of the nation's political races in 2006.