The Battle for the U.S. Senate: Getting Over the Edge

In this year's midterm election, the Democrats need six seats to win back a majority in the United States Senate. And considering the current political climate, it's not as far fetched as it sounds. However, it will still be an uphill battle because the Democrats are defending more seats. Every two years one third of the seats in the Senate are up for election and this year the Democrats are defending 18 seats to the Republicans 15. Also, there are only four open seats this year (where no incumbent is running). What favors the Democrats is the political winds seem to be blowing in their favor, and most of the seats up for grabs this year are outside of the South, which should be a big relief to them since that is where they suffered devastating losses in the 2004 election.

The big story being circulated among the analysts out there is that the Democrats have a reasonable shot of gaining five seats, but the sixth seat that they need to win control of the Senate may prove to be elusive. Those five seats where Republicans are vulnerable include the following:

Missouri
- Senator Jim Talent vs. state Auditor Claire McCaskill

Montana
- Senator Conrad Burns vs. state Senate president Jon Tester

Ohio
- Senator Mike DeWine vs. Rep. Sherrod Brown

Pennsylvania
- Senator Rick Santorum vs. state Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr.

Rhode Island
- Senator Lincoln Chafee vs. former state attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse

All of these races are projected to come down to the wire come Election Day and so a lot of attention will be paid to these races as the weeks pass by.

The sixth seat that Democrats need to win in order to take control of the Senate will probably come from one of the following:

Arizona
- Senator Jon Kyl vs. former state Democratic Party chairman Jim Pederson

Tennessee (open)
- Former mayor of Chattanooga Bob Corker (R) vs. Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D)

Virginia
- Senator George Allen vs. former Secretary of the Navy James Webb

These races have just recently been placed in the radar screen of close battles, especially the Tennessee and Virginia races.

And of course the Democrats must defend all of their vulnerable seats, which makes their effort to retake the Senate such an uphill climb. These seats include the following:

Maryland (open)
- Rep. Ben Cardin (D) vs. Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele (R)

Minnesota (open)
- Hennepin County attorney Amy Klobuchar (D) vs. Rep. Mark Kennedy (R)

New Jersey
- Senator Robert Menendez vs. state Senator Tom Kean, Jr.

Washington
- Senator Maria Cantwell vs. former insurance company CEO Mike McGavick

Currently, the seat that appears to be the most vulnerable is the New Jersey one so keep an eye out for that race.

Another noticeable race is the one in Connecticut. The Democrats are not in danger of losing this seat but the current incumbent is, Senator Joe Lieberman. The senator was defeated by Ned Lamont in the state's primary on August 8 by a vote of 52% to 48%. But election law in the state allows the senator to run as an independent in the general election and that is exactly what he is doing now.

Connecticut
Senator Joe Lieberman (I) vs. businessman Ned Lamont (D) vs. former state representative Alan Schlesinger (R)

So these are the top battles for the Senate in this year's Midterm Election. There are some other possibilities such as the Nebraska, Michigan, and West Virginia races but I will hold off on listing them because the incumbents look to be in solid position. I will update this list as time passes and you might also want to keep a look-out for the Walla, Avalos, Gross and Oca predictions, coming to you in the near future.