Nevada Caucus: Romney Wins in a Blowout

I was a little taken aback at the results of the Nevada Republican Caucus because former Governor Mitt Romney won a crushing victory with 51% of the vote! His nearest rival was Rep. Ron Paul with a meager 14%. Senator John McCain finished a close third with 13%.

I thought that Rep. Paul would do well and he did by finishing in 2nd place, which is his best showing yet. But it was a distant 2nd place and so this lackluster result probably ends any chance of Rep. Paul winning the Republican nomination. Sorry, Music/Website Directory (whose identity can be discovered by visiting our website) but unless some miracle happens, Ron Paul won't become the next president of the United States.

Romney's striking victory can be attributed to several factors but two that stand out for me are the candidates time spent in Nevada and the large turnout of Mormon voters. As I mentioned in a previous post, Romney and Paul were the only candidates that gave any significant attention to Nevada because the rest of the field focused their efforts on the historically important state of South Carolina (whose primary was held on the same day as Nevada's contest). And since Romney had the financial resources to set up an effective ground operation in Nevada, this advantage was reflected in the state's final results. The other factor that really benefited Romney was the large presence of Mormon voters (don't forget, Romney is the first major Mormon candidate running for president). There is a sizable Mormon population in Nevada and the exit polls showed them coming out in droves on Saturday, for they made up 26% of the total electorate. And of that 26%, an astonishing 95% voted for Romney!

What I would like to do now is look at the results by congressional district, which is a major part of the Prez game (actually, Prez 1.0 will consist of regions, but the congressional districts will make up those regions). But I should note that my analysis of Nevada's results through districts will be somewhat rough due to the fact that election results are presented primarily by county. Though with the help of maps it's still possible so let's get to it!

Nevada 1: Las Vegas
This is the Las Vegas district. It has a PVI of D+9, meaning it has a solid Democratic lean to it. It's large base of unionized service workers is a major reason why it leans to the left. But of course Republicans are still able to gain votes here and Romney dominated Clark County (where Las Vegas resides) by winning 58% of its vote.

Nevada 2: Reno, Carson City, and the "Cow Counties"
This district consist of the rural areas of Nevada, plus its other gambling center, Reno, and the state capital, Carson City. With a PVI of R +8, it is the political counterweight to Nevada 1. It is also a district which Romney won decisively. He did especially well in the eastern counties of Elko, White Pine, and Lincoln, where many of the state's Mormons live.

Nevada 3: Las Vegas suburbs
This is the most politically competitive district in the state due to its PVI of D +1 and it consist of a mix of people such as conservative new arrivals, senior citizens, white-collar workers, union workers, and Mormons. The Mormon presence probably played a major role in helping Romney win Clark County, thus helping him to win the state overall.

A special thanks goes out to the The Almanac of American Politics 2008 and CQ's Politics in America 2008 because most of our research come from these two vital sources. That's it for now but stay tune for the Democratic results!

Nevada Republican Caucus Final Results

Romney - 51%
Paul - 14%
McCain - 13%
Huckabee - 8%
Thompson - 8%
Giuliani - 4%
Hunter - 2%