Nevada Caucus: Clinton Triumphs Again

In an election where no one knew what to expect, Senator Hillary Clinton prevailed once again over Senator Barack Obama, by a vote of 51% to 45%. Former Senator John Edwards finished in 3rd place with a meager 4% of the vote, making Nevada for all intents and purposes a two-person race.

I have to admit, I was pretty disappointed by the outcome (remember, I'm supporting Senator Obama for president). Due to the fact that Obama won the endorsement of the influential Culinary Workers Union, I thought he had a great shot of winning Nevada. But I guess they were not influential enough as the political machine of Rory Reid, the son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and former President Bill Clinton's campaigning help propel Hillary to victory.

The task of winning elections is all about building coalitions of voters and you do so by taking into account a number of factors such as income, gender, education levels, party affiliation, and race. Exit polls are a good tool to use when building your coalition, and in Nevada's case they reveal some intriguing numbers which may prove detrimental to Obama's campaign. Unfortunately, Senator Obama loss the white and all-important Hispanic vote by large margins. Clinton won whites, 52% to 34%, and Hispanics, 64% to 26%. The results of the Hispanic vote is worrisome to me because they are an essential voting bloc in Tsunami Tuesday states such as Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and of course the big enchilada, California. If they break towards Clinton the way they did in Nevada, and if she gains a similar percentage of white voters, then she will be unstoppable. Thus, Obama has to find a way to chip into her support among Hispanics and whites by February 5 or else he's going home.

But there is also some good news for Senator Obama. It looks like he is solidifying the African American vote behind him, for he won their vote by a gigantic margin in Nevada, 83% to 14%. The fact that Obama could be the first African American president undoubtedly plays to his advantage among black voters. The senator continues to win among independents as well and that is something he will need to do once Tsunami Tuesday rolls around.

Let's take a closer look at the results by breaking it down by congressional district.

Nevada 1: Las Vegas
Clinton took Clark County overall, winning it 54% against Obama's 44%. The most intriguing battle here was along the famous Las Vegas "Strip", where special caucus sites were set up to accommodate culinary workers. These sites were held in famous Las Vegas hotels such as Cesar's Palace, the Wynn, Bellagio, MGM Grand, and the Flamingo. Some thought these sites would go heavily for Obama but in the end they didn't. Clinton's campaign did a great job organizing and with the help of Hispanic support, she won seven of the nine caucus sites on the Strip.

Nevada 2: Reno, Carson City, and the "Cow Counties"
Senator Obama did much better in this district, taking major population centers such as Washoe County (Reno) by a vote of 50% to 41%. Obama basically won across Nevada's northern tier and he even took conservative Elko County by a big margin, 63% to 31%. The following paragraph from this January 21st post from First Read explains how Obama won this rural county:

"When Obama mentioned the tiny town of Elko, which he won by a huge margin, he was both accurate and his comment reflected a huge organizing effort on the part of his campaign to reach out to rural voters, independents and Republicans. The campaign started organizing in places like Elko in the fall, which is smack down in the center of the northern part of the state and it feels like you're stepping onto the set of "Fargo" when you go there. Investing resources there may seem like a lark, after all as one resident put it before the Obama office arrived there wasn't a political office there for "as long as anyone can remember." But Elko had two organizers, and the investment paid off because Obama was able to win in those rural areas which ultimately helped him gain the delegate advantage in Nevada."

That last point is important to note because if the delegate preferences remain unchanged until the final selection process in April, Obama will barely edge out Clinton in the race for delgates, 13 to 12. I know it must be somewhat confusing but just know that it has something to do with the fact that rural counties are given a little more weight in the distribution of delegates. So similar to the Electoral College, Clinton won the popular vote but lost the delegate vote to Obama.

Nevada 3: Las Vegas Suburbs
It looks like Clinton won this district as well because as mentioned, she won Clark County overall 54% to 44%. And I suspect that Rory Reid's voter turnout operation also made the difference in this competitive district.

So there you go, Clinton won Clark County and several counties in the south while the northern half went primarily to Obama. And even though Obama won the delegate count, what matters more is the headline of Clinton winning Nevada's popular vote. This gives her great momentum going into future contests and unfortunately, it sets up a must-win situation for Obama in South Carolina. So on we go to the South!

Nevada Democratic Caucus Final Results

Clinton - 51%
Obama - 45%
Edwards - 4%