Legislative Elections in El Salvador

Back on March 12, 2006, the Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) won a narrow majority in El Salvador's Legislative Assembly election. They obtained 39.4% of the vote and 34 seats while their nearest rival, the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN), won 39.1% and 32 seats. ARENA is a conservative leaning party that has dominated politics in El Salavador since the 1980's, and the FMLN is composed of left-leaning groups. Before becoming one of the two major political parties in the country, the FMLN was a guerilla organization that fought the government.

The Battle for the U.S. House: Indiana - The Big Three

In the battle over Indiana's House districts, there are three that stand out: the Indiana 2nd, Indiana 8th, and Indiana 9th. For the past few months these Republican held seats have stood out in the spotlight, and it seems very possible that all three incumbents may face defeat in November. So keep your eye out for the "Big Three" because their results may very well determine who gets control of the House in November.

Indiana 1st - Gary, Hammond
Long serving Rep. Peter Visclosky (D) represents one of the few Democratic strongholds in Indiana and so he should have no trouble defending his steelworker, union, and minority filled district against carpenter, Mark Leyva (R).

Indiana 2nd - North Central: South Bend, parts of Elkhart and Kokomo
This is the first of the "Big Three" where Rep. Chris Chocola (R) is facing a strong challenge from lawyer and small business owner, Joe Donnelly (D). Even though Rep. Chocola defeated Mr. Donnelly by a healthy margin in 2004, the current political climate is making this race competitive and the DCCC is sending in money to help Mr. Donnelly's campaign. The district is traditionally competitive and it includes a combination of areas such as the Catholic Norte Dame community, low income minority populations, blue-collar communities, and farming areas. I have seen polls where Mr. Donnelly is in the lead and so he may very well pull off an upset victory.

Indiana 3rd - Northeast: Fort Wayne
Rep. Mark Souder (R) represents a strong Republican district with strong agricultural and religious roots. He should have no trouble defending it against doctor and city council member, Thomas Hayhurst (D).

Indiana 4th - West Central: Indianapolis suburbs, Lafayette
Rep. Steve Buyer (R) represents a strong Republican district filled with farms, small towns, and suburbs. He should have no trouble defeating his opponent, David Sanders (D), who's a teacher.

Indiana 5th - East Central: part of Indianapolis and suburbs
Long-time Rep. Dan Burton (R) represents the wealthiest and strongest Republican district in Indiana, which is composed of Indianapolis suburbanites and rural farmers. He will more than likely dominate his opponent, Katherine Carr (D), a realtor.

Indiana 6th - East: Muncie, Anderson, Richmond
Rep. Mike Pence (R) represents a strong Republican district with a mix of farms, midsize cities, and suburban populations. He will more than likely defeat his opponent, Barry Welsh (D), a minister.

Indiana 7th - Most of Indianapolis
Rep. Julia Carson (D) represents the largest city in the state, Indianapolis, which is composed of minorities, heavy industry, and a large white-collar workforce. She should have no trouble defeating auto dealer, Eric Dickerson (R).

Indiana 8th - West: Evansville, Terre Haute
This is another of the "Big Three" where Rep. John Hostettler (R) is facing a mighty challenge from

Indiana 9th - Southeast: Bloomington, New Albany
This race is the last of the "Big Three" where Rep. Mike Sodrel is facing a rematch with the congressman he defeated in 2004, former Rep.

Works Cited
- Koszczuk, J. & Stern, H.A. (Eds.). (2005). CQ's Politics in America 2006: The 109th Congress. (13th Edition). Washington DC: Congressional Quarterly Inc.

The Battle for the U.S. House: Virginia - One Shining Seat

The Old Dominion State of Virginia only has one congressional race standing out among its 11 districts. But this one race stands out as one of the hottest in the country and so expect the Democratic and Republican campaign committees to pour resources into them like wildfire.

Virginia 1st - East: parts of Newport News and Hampton, Fredericksburg
Thanks to a strong Republican district and a large military population, Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R) should be heavily favored to win re-election against author, Shawn O'Donnell (D).

Virginia 2nd - Southeast: Virginia Beach, parts of Norfolk and Hampton
This is a hot race where Rep. Thelma Drake (R) is facing a strong challenge from Phil Kellam (D), a popular Virginia Beach Commissioner of the Revenue. Virginia Beach makes up much of the district and it has a large military population with a Republican lean. But Mr. Kellam is a familiar name in the area due to his current office and the fact that his family has been involved in Virginia Beach politics for decades. And even though Rep. Drake has a lead in terms of cash on hand with just over $708,000 to Mr. Kellam's $517,000, expect Mr. Kellam to make a strong effort towards the end with help from the DCCC.

Virginia 3rd - Southeast: parts of Richmond, Norfolk, and Newport News, Portsmouth
This is the most Democratic and only African-American majority district in Virginia, and so Rep. Bobby Scott (D) is virtually assured of winning re-election. It also helps that he has no Republican challenger this year.

Virginia 4th - Southeast: Chesapeake
Rep. Randy Forbes (R) is virtually assured of winning re-election as well since he has no Democratic challenger. The district is based in Chesapeake and it has a Republican lean to it.

Virginia 5th - South Central: Danville, Charlottesville
Republican Rep. Virgil Goode may face a tough re-election race since he shares ties with the Cunningham scandal. The two candidates competing for the Democratic nomination are Bern Ewert, a former City Manager of Roanoke and Al Weed, a winegrower and the 2004 nominee.

Virginia 6th - Northwest: Roanoke, Lynchburg
Republican Rep. Bob Goodlatte should be a lock for re-election against write-in Democratic candidate Aaron Lyles.

Virginia 7th - Central: part of Richmond and suburbs
Republican Rep. Eric Cantor is going to win his re-election race because there is no Democratic challenger.

Virginia 8th - Washington suburbs: Arlington, Alexandria, part of Fairfax County
This is one of the few districts in Virginia that lean Democratic and so Democratic Rep. Jim Moran should have no trouble holding on to this seat.

Virginia 9th - Southwest: Blacksburg, Bristol
This district leans Republican but surprisingly it's represented by Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher. Since he's been in office for awhile now the congressman has been re-elected by comfortable margins. This year should be another comfortable win as he faces off against Republican C.W. "Bill" Carrico, a State Delegate and retired police officer.

Virginia 10th - North: part of Fairfax County, Loudoun County
Republican Rep. Frank Wolf is almost a sure bet in his re-election race against Democrat Judy Feder, a Georgetown Public Policy Institute Dean and former congressional aide.

Virginia 11th - Washington suburbs: parts of Fairfax and Prince William counties
If you take a look at the presidential vote of this district you would think it would be a swing district, but Republican Rep. Tom Davis has solidified his position in this seat. Northern Virginia has been growing more Democratic in recent years so it will be interesting to see if the Democratic candidate can make any headway this year. The two Dems competing for the nomination are Andy Hurst, an attorney, and Ken Longmyer, a retired foreign service officer and the 2004 nominee.

Works Cited
- Koszczuk, J. & Stern, H.A. (Eds.). (2005). CQ's Politics in America 2006: The 109th Congress. (13th Edition). Washington DC: Congressional Quarterly Inc.

The Battle for the U.S. House: Wyoming - A Potential Surprise

Wyoming might surprise some people this year with its lone congressional race. But it is still Wyoming, a strong red state which for years has gone Republican in presidential and congressional elections. In fact, Wyoming has not elected a Democrat to Congress since 1976!

Wyoming - At Large
Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) should be able to hold on to her statewide congressional seat. But she won her last election by a somewhat vulnerable margin of 55% to 42% and her challenger this year, Gary Trauner (D), an internet executive, does not appear to be a push-over. Mr. Trauner has raised a significant amount of money thus far and with just over $205,000 on hand compared to Rep. Cubin's $232,000, he seems poised to make a strong push on Election Day. Still, Wyoming is very tough territory for Democrats and so a Trauner victory would be stunning.

Works Cited
- Koszczuk, J. & Stern, H.A. (Eds.). (2005). CQ's Politics in America 2006: The 109th Congress. (13th Edition). Washington DC: Congressional Quarterly Inc.

Chile Elects its First Woman President

Going back a little further, I should mention that Chile elected Michelle Bachelet as its first woman president on January 15, 2006. President Bachelet is a moderate Socialist and a member of the Coalition for Parties of Democracy, an alliance of center-left political parties which has governed Chile since 1990. She defeated Sebastián Piñera, a center-right billionaire businessman and former senator by a vote of 53% to 47% in the January run-off. Her election is one in a continuing line of elections where left-leaning candidates are winning office in South America.

The Democrats Field Marshall

The main function of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is elect Democrats to Congress and in this case, regain a majority for the Democratic Party. The DCCC raises money for congressional candidates and it coordinates where to target the committee's campaign resources. This year it is being led by Rep. Rahm Emanuel from the Illinois 5th.

The Battle for the U.S. House: Hot Races

This year's battle for the U.S. House of Representatives is truly epic. The following is my list of the top congressional races in the country. And as you can tell, due to recent scandals and the current political climate there are a lot more districts in play than usual. I composed this list by researching the works of various analysts and pundits, and so hopefully it will provide a good picture of what races to follow. Who knows, you could very well live in one of these districts!

Hot House Races

Arizona 5th
Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) vs. Harry Mitchell (D), state senator

Arizona 8th
Open: Randy Graf (R), former state rep. vs. Gabrielle Giffords (D), former state senator

California 4th
Rep. John Doolittle (R) vs. Charles Brown (D), retired Air Force pilot

California 11th
Rep. Richard Pombo (R) vs. Jerry McNerney (D), engineer

Colorado 3rd
Rep. John Salazar (D) vs. Scott Tipton (R), pottery company owner

Colorado 4th
Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) vs. Angie Paccione (D), state representative

Colorado 7th
Open: Rick O'Donnell (R), state higher education commission chair vs. Ed Perlmutter (D), former state senator

Connecticut 2nd
Rep. Rob Simmons (R) vs. Joe Courtney (D), former state representative

Connecticut 4th
Rep. Christopher Shays (R) vs. Diane Farrell (D), Westport selectwoman

Connecticut 5th
Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) vs. Chris Murphy (D), state senator

Florida 13th
Open: Vern Buchanan (R), auto dealer vs. Christine Jennings (D), bank president

Florida 16th
Open: Joe Negron (R), state representative vs. Tim Mahoney (D), venture capitalist

Florida 22nd
Rep. Clay Shaw (D) vs. Ron Klein (D), state senate minority leader

Georgia 8th
Rep. Jim Marshall (D) vs. Mac Collins (R), former congressman

Georgia 12th
Rep. John Barrow (D) vs. Max Burns (R), former congressman

Illinois 6th
Open: Peter Roskam (R), state senator vs. Tammy Duckworth (D), Iraq War veteran

Illinois 8th
Rep. Melissa Bean (D) vs. David McSweeney (R), investment banker

Indiana 2nd
Rep. Chris Chocola (R) vs. Joe Donnelly (D), lawyer

Indiana 8th
Rep. John Hostettler (R) vs. Brad Ellsworth (D), Vanderburgh County sheriff

Indiana 9th
Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) vs. Baron Hill (D), former congressman

Iowa 1st
Open: Mike Whalen (R), businessman vs. Bruce Braley (D), former president of Iowa Trial Lawyers Association

Iowa 3rd
Rep. Leonard Boswell (D) vs. Jeff Lamberti (R), state senate president

Kentucky 3rd
Rep. Anne Northup (R) vs. John Yarmuth (D), former newspaper publisher

Kentucky 4th
Rep. Geoff Davis (R) vs. Ken Lucas (D), former congressman

Louisiana 3rd
Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) vs. Craig Romero (R), state senator

Minnesota 6th
Open: Michele Bachmann (R), state senator vs. Patty Wetterling (D), child safety activist

Nevada 3rd
Rep. Jon Porter (R) vs. Tessa Hafen (D), former Senate aide

New Mexico 1st
Rep. Heather Wilson (R) vs. Patricia Madrid (D), state attorney general

New York 20th
Rep. John Sweeney (R) vs. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), lawyer

New York 24th
Open: Raymond Meier (R), state senator vs. Michael Arcuri (D), Oneida County district attorney

New York 29th
Rep. John "Randy" Kuhl (R) vs. Eric Massa (D), former Naval officer

North Carolina 11th
Rep. Charles Taylor (R) vs. Heath Shuler (D), former NFL quarterback

Ohio 1st
Rep. Steve Chabot (R) vs. John Cranley (D), Cincinnati city councilman

Ohio 15th
Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) vs. Mary Jo Kilroy (D), Franklin County Commissioner

Ohio 18th
Open: Joy Padgett (R), state representative vs. Zack Space (D), Dover city attorney

Pennsylvania 6th
Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) vs. Lois Murphy (D), lawyer

Pennsylvania 7th
Rep. Curt Weldon (R) vs. Joe Sestak (D), former Navy admiral

Pennsylvania 8th
Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) vs. Patrick Murphy (D), Iraq War veteran

Pennsylvania 10th
Rep. Don Sherwood (R) vs. Chris Carney (D), college professor

South Carolina 5th
Rep. John Spratt (D) vs. Ralph Norman (R), state representative

Texas 17th
Rep. Chet Edwards (D) vs. Van Taylor (R), Iraq War veteran

Texas 22nd
Open: Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R), Houston city councilwoman vs. Nick Lampson (D), former congressman

Texas 23rd
Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) vs. Ciro Rodriguez (D), former congressman

Vermont - At Large
Open: Peter Welch (D), state senate president pro tem vs. Martha Rainville (R), National Guard general

Virginia 2nd
Rep. Thelma Drake (R) vs. Phil Kellam (D), Virginia Beach Commissioner of Revenue

Washington 8th
Rep. Dave Reichert (R) vs. Darcy Burner (D), former Microsoft executive

West Virginia 1st
Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) vs. Chris Wakim (R), state delegate

Wisconsin 8th
Open: John Gard (R), state assembly speaker vs. Steve Kagen (D), doctor