Florida Primary: McCain Pulls Ahead

In a close battle between the two leading Republican candidates, Senator John McCain and former Governor Mitt Romney, McCain pulled through with a victory in Florida's primary. He won by a modest margin over Romney, winning the state 36% to 31%. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who placed his hopes on winning Florida, finished a distant third with 15% of the vote. As a result of his dismal showing, Giuliani dropped out of the race the following day.

It was a remarkable victory for McCain, considering that it was a closed primary contest. Closed contests are those where only Republicans can participate and many pundits thought McCain would be unable to compete in these kinds of states. But of course in the end McCain proved them wrong.

In looking at the political geography of McCain's victory, he did very well in key areas of the state. His biggest margins came in southeastern Florida's "Gold Coast", an area populated by large communities of senior citizens and Cuban Americans. McCain also prevailed in the northern section of Florida, a region known for its heavy presence of military communities. The other key region he won was the Tampa area, which has a strong presence of service and white-collar workers. Even though Romney did well in places such as the Jacksonville area and southwestern Florida, it was not enough to overcome McCain's strongholds.

But what I think really pushed McCain to victory was the endorsements of two of the state's most popular elected officials, Governor Charlie Crist and Senator Mel Martinez. The race was a neck and neck battle between McCain and Romney but when these endorsements were announced in the days leading up to the primary, momentum shifted in McCain's favor.

And this victory cements McCain's status as the leading front-runner for the Republican nomination. It's so amazing too, considering where he came from. As I mentioned in a previous post, McCain was virtually left for dead last summer and there was hardly anyone who forecasted his resurrection. But McCain's campaign had a sound strategy in mind and they implemented it to perfection. They focused their efforts on one of McCain's old favorites, New Hampshire, and of course that effort paid off with a rehabilitating win. They targeted McCain's strengths in South Carolina and as a result, they edged out the Iowa Caucus winner, former Governor Mike Hucakbee. And after battling hard and gaining some key institutional support, McCain's campaign came away with victory in Florida. So with this new found momentum behind him, I believe Senator McCain will do very well come Tsunami Tuesday.

What's also remarkable is that it looks like the moderate/centrist wing of the Republican Party is going to win this time. Nothing demonstrated that better than the picture of Senator McCain standing alongside Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani yesterday. Schwarzenegger was giving his endorsement to the senator and Giuliani was there showing support (he had also endorsed McCain the day before).

From my understanding, there are a lot of conservatives within the base of the Republican Party who either dislike or distrust the senator from Arizona. This lack of affection and trust can be traced to their dislike of McCain's independent stances, disagreeing with him on issues such as campaign finance reform, immigration, and global warming. On other issues McCain is very much a conservative ideologue, but I guess from their vantage point he is not conservative enough. Oh well, it looks like come Tuesday they will need to rally behind the senator if they want to prevent a Democrat from taking the White House. As for me, I don't mind if McCain wins the GOP nomination. Senator McCain and his maverick status is one of the reasons why he is my favorite Republican, so I hope McCain, Schwarzenegger, Giuliani, and the rest of the moderate/centrist wing of the Republican Party prevail over the conservative wing.

And speaking of Giuliani, I just want to make a few comments regarding his failed presidential campaign. His strategy was to wait and hope for a big victory in Florida, which he thought would propel him with great momentum going into Tsunami Tuesday. But of course that strategy did not pan out. If you think about it, Giuliani's fall from grace is really sad because he was the leading candidate in the polls throughout most of last year and many viewed him as being the strongest Republican challenger against the Democrats. His fall will be studied by political scientists for years to come and it will be remembered as one of the most remarkable downfalls in American political history. Oh well, perhaps someday Rudy will make a comeback in politics but it doesn't look like it will happen anytime soon.

As for the Democrats primary in Florida, once again their contest did not count. It was just like Michigan because since Florida scheduled their primary before February 5, Florida Democrats suffered the wrath of the Democratic National Committee when all of their convention delegates were stripped. And just like Michigan, all of the candidates kept their pledge to not campaign in Florida. But this time all of their names were on the ballot and Senator Hillary Clinton came away as the victor. The senator even tried to portray the contest as a big win for her campaign, holding a victory rally with many of her supporters. In my opinion, this rally demonstrated her attempt to change the rules at the last minute and give the impression that her Florida victory matters. But just like Michigan, in the end Florida's results will not matter because no delegates were awarded. However, it could matter if there were to be a brokered convention, but hopefully it will not come to that point!

Florida Primary Final Results

Republicans
McCain - 36%
Romney - 31%
Giuliani - 15%
Huckabee - 14%
Paul - 3%
Thompson - 1%

Democrats
Clinton - 50%
Obama - 33%
Edwards - 14%
Kucinich - 1%