South Carolina GOP Primary: The Mac is Truly Back

Senator John McCain redeemed his South Carolina defeat in 2000 by winning a narrow victory over former Governor Mike Huckabee, 33% to 30%. Former Senator Fred Thompson finished a distant 3rd with 16% and former Governor Mitt Romney finished right behind with 15%.

It took 8 years but Senator McCain was finally able to win South Carolina. Historically, the state has a good track record of selecting the Republican nominee and so McCain's victory certainly bodes well for his chances of winning the nomination.

And just to note, McCain's comeback is truly amazing. He was far behind in the polls only a few weeks ago and he was pretty much left for dead last summer when his campaign manager and some of his top aides resigned. But the senator demonstrated great resiliency and I believe his victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina will go down as one of the greatest political comebacks of all time.

I think the biggest factors contributing to McCain's victory in South Carolina was the strong turnout of military veterans and the presence of former Senator Fred Thompson in the race. According to exit polls, a quarter of the electorate said they had served in the military and of those voters, a solid 36% voted for McCain. It also appears Thompson's presence chipped into Huckabee's support among Christian evangelical voters, which was evident in key counties such as Greenville County.

Sorry, I don't have time to do a detailed breakdown by congressional district like before so I'll just do a quick one instead.

Huckabee won in the Up Country and for the most part this area consist of South Carolina districts 3, 4, and 5. South Carolina 4 stands out because this is the Greenville/Spartanburg district, home to a large number of Christian evangelicals and conservative Bob Jones University. But Huckabee did not win the Up Country overwhelmingly and as a result, he ended up losing statewide.

McCain did very well in the Low Country and this area consist of South Carolina districts 1, 2, and 6. He really piled up his margins in counties such as Charleston and Beaufort, winning big among key groups such as military veterans and white-collar professionals.

The split between the socially conservative Up Country and the economically conservative Low Country is a historical one in South Carolina GOP primaries and as the results demonstrate, the Low Country won this time due to McCain's coalition of economic and foreign policy conservatives.

To be quite honest, I thought Huckabee would win South Carolina due to the large presence of Christian evangelical voters. This voting bloc propelled Huckabee to victory in Iowa and I was sure it would happen again in this state, which is one of the most socially conservative states in the union. But it was not to be for McCain proved his mettle by winning the state in dramatic fashion. He looked so happy during his victory speech and he had good reason to be happy too, due to his past history in the Palmetto State.

There is no doubt that Senator Obama is my top choice for president but if Senator McCain becomes the Republican nominee, I would have to think twice because the senator from Arizona is my favorite Republican. I disagree with the senator on several issues but overall what I really admire about McCain is his straight-talking style and his desire to improve the state of politics, similar to Senator Obama's call for a "New Politics." Anyway, this victory puts Senator McCain in great position for the next big Republican battle, the Florida Primary, so let's see what happens!

South Carolina Republican Primary

McCain - 33%
Huckabee - 30%
Thompson - 16%
Romney - 15%
Paul - 4%
Giuliani - 2%