Prez Update

I just wanted to inform you that in terms of creating Prez, the Research Department is getting very close to completing an essential element of the game. This particular element took us a long time to finish but we believe it was worth the effort. Let's just say that it deals with the "chessboard" of the game, and that the detail we put in it should expand the game play possibilities of Prez.

Also, in terms of political reporting I decided that this blog will focus on American elections instead due to the topic's wide breadth (presidential, congressional, gubernatorial, etc). But for those of you that enjoy international coverage, feel free to visit the blog of this new group I joined called The OC International Studies Club. Just click on the link below to see what it's about!

The OC International Studies Report

Obama vs. Clinton: The Battle Continues

The battle for the Democratic presidential nomination continues. And it looks like it will continue all the way to the convention in late August. Senator Clinton avoided ultimate defeat on March 5 by winning in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island, showing once again her great resiliency. So as this race goes on we hope you will be able to play our game sometime this summer, giving you the opportunity to change history by replaying this monumental race!

Obama vs. Clinton and McCain Triumphant

Sorry for the lack of posts lately, but I've been caught up in a whirlwind of school work and important work on the Prez game. As a result, the posts may not come like they used to, but I'll try my best to keep up.

As most of you probably noticed, Tsunami Tuesday was basically a tie between Clinton and Obama, with Clinton winning the large states and Obama the small to mid-sized states. Since then, Obama has been on a role, winning 8 contests in a row since last Saturday. This race will go on but in my opinion I think March 4 will be the key date to watch. It will basically be a mini-Super Tuesday consisting of primaries in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont. If Clinton sweeps Texas and Ohio, then she will regain the momentum and bring this race down to the convention. But if Obama wins Texas and Ohio, I think he will have the nomination in the bag.

Of course the Republican race is for all intents and purposes over. Huckabee and Paul may still be running, but McCain delivered a knockout blow against his main rival, Romney, by winning the major contests on Tsunami Tuesday. The Texas Primary should be interesting to watch though, because if Huckabee pulls out an upset like he did in Kansas and Louisiana, it will show that McCain still has work to do when it comes to consolidating the Republican base (which in his case will be very difficult).

Florida Primary: McCain Pulls Ahead

In a close battle between the two leading Republican candidates, Senator John McCain and former Governor Mitt Romney, McCain pulled through with a victory in Florida's primary. He won by a modest margin over Romney, winning the state 36% to 31%. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who placed his hopes on winning Florida, finished a distant third with 15% of the vote. As a result of his dismal showing, Giuliani dropped out of the race the following day.

It was a remarkable victory for McCain, considering that it was a closed primary contest. Closed contests are those where only Republicans can participate and many pundits thought McCain would be unable to compete in these kinds of states. But of course in the end McCain proved them wrong.

In looking at the political geography of McCain's victory, he did very well in key areas of the state. His biggest margins came in southeastern Florida's "Gold Coast", an area populated by large communities of senior citizens and Cuban Americans. McCain also prevailed in the northern section of Florida, a region known for its heavy presence of military communities. The other key region he won was the Tampa area, which has a strong presence of service and white-collar workers. Even though Romney did well in places such as the Jacksonville area and southwestern Florida, it was not enough to overcome McCain's strongholds.

But what I think really pushed McCain to victory was the endorsements of two of the state's most popular elected officials, Governor Charlie Crist and Senator Mel Martinez. The race was a neck and neck battle between McCain and Romney but when these endorsements were announced in the days leading up to the primary, momentum shifted in McCain's favor.

And this victory cements McCain's status as the leading front-runner for the Republican nomination. It's so amazing too, considering where he came from. As I mentioned in a previous post, McCain was virtually left for dead last summer and there was hardly anyone who forecasted his resurrection. But McCain's campaign had a sound strategy in mind and they implemented it to perfection. They focused their efforts on one of McCain's old favorites, New Hampshire, and of course that effort paid off with a rehabilitating win. They targeted McCain's strengths in South Carolina and as a result, they edged out the Iowa Caucus winner, former Governor Mike Hucakbee. And after battling hard and gaining some key institutional support, McCain's campaign came away with victory in Florida. So with this new found momentum behind him, I believe Senator McCain will do very well come Tsunami Tuesday.

What's also remarkable is that it looks like the moderate/centrist wing of the Republican Party is going to win this time. Nothing demonstrated that better than the picture of Senator McCain standing alongside Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani yesterday. Schwarzenegger was giving his endorsement to the senator and Giuliani was there showing support (he had also endorsed McCain the day before).

From my understanding, there are a lot of conservatives within the base of the Republican Party who either dislike or distrust the senator from Arizona. This lack of affection and trust can be traced to their dislike of McCain's independent stances, disagreeing with him on issues such as campaign finance reform, immigration, and global warming. On other issues McCain is very much a conservative ideologue, but I guess from their vantage point he is not conservative enough. Oh well, it looks like come Tuesday they will need to rally behind the senator if they want to prevent a Democrat from taking the White House. As for me, I don't mind if McCain wins the GOP nomination. Senator McCain and his maverick status is one of the reasons why he is my favorite Republican, so I hope McCain, Schwarzenegger, Giuliani, and the rest of the moderate/centrist wing of the Republican Party prevail over the conservative wing.

And speaking of Giuliani, I just want to make a few comments regarding his failed presidential campaign. His strategy was to wait and hope for a big victory in Florida, which he thought would propel him with great momentum going into Tsunami Tuesday. But of course that strategy did not pan out. If you think about it, Giuliani's fall from grace is really sad because he was the leading candidate in the polls throughout most of last year and many viewed him as being the strongest Republican challenger against the Democrats. His fall will be studied by political scientists for years to come and it will be remembered as one of the most remarkable downfalls in American political history. Oh well, perhaps someday Rudy will make a comeback in politics but it doesn't look like it will happen anytime soon.

As for the Democrats primary in Florida, once again their contest did not count. It was just like Michigan because since Florida scheduled their primary before February 5, Florida Democrats suffered the wrath of the Democratic National Committee when all of their convention delegates were stripped. And just like Michigan, all of the candidates kept their pledge to not campaign in Florida. But this time all of their names were on the ballot and Senator Hillary Clinton came away as the victor. The senator even tried to portray the contest as a big win for her campaign, holding a victory rally with many of her supporters. In my opinion, this rally demonstrated her attempt to change the rules at the last minute and give the impression that her Florida victory matters. But just like Michigan, in the end Florida's results will not matter because no delegates were awarded. However, it could matter if there were to be a brokered convention, but hopefully it will not come to that point!

Florida Primary Final Results

Republicans
McCain - 36%
Romney - 31%
Giuliani - 15%
Huckabee - 14%
Paul - 3%
Thompson - 1%

Democrats
Clinton - 50%
Obama - 33%
Edwards - 14%
Kucinich - 1%

South Carolina Dem. Primary: Obama Wins Big

Senator Barack Obama was the big winner in today's South Carolina Democratic Primary. He won 55% of the vote, a clear majority and a 2-1 margin over his nearest rival, Senator Hillary Clinton. It was a needed win for Senator Obama as well, after suffering two consecutive losses in the past few weeks (New Hampshire and Nevada).

In terms of a geographical breakdown, Senator Obama nearly swept the entire board, winning every county except for Oconee and Horry. His largest margins came in the Low Country, which consist of many professionals and African Americans, important elements in Obama's electoral coalition.

And in looking at the demographics, Obama's big margin can be attributed to huge support from African American voters. They made up 55% of the electorate and Obama won them overwhelmingly with close to 80% of their vote. But he also didn't do too badly among whites. Obama won 24% of the white vote, doing better among men and actually winning whites ages 18-29.

I hope Senator Obama can carry this new found momentum into the next big contest, which of course is Tsunami Tuesday!

South Carolina Democratic Primary

Obama - 55%
Clinton - 27%
Edwards - 18%

Election Review: Karimov's Control of Uzbekistan

Another recent election on the international scene that I would like to review is Uzbekistan's presidential election which occurred on December 23, 2007. But this election was no where near being free and fair because the reality is that similar to other nations in Central Asia, Uzbekistan is an authoritarian state dominated by its president, Islam Karimov.

Karimov has been the leader of Uzbekistan since 1989, first as head of the communist party during Soviet Union control, and then as president following independence in 1991. Since then he has ruled the country with an iron fist, maintaining strict control over all state matters. He has fixed past elections in his favor and all signs indicate this election being no different. International news organizations were barred from observing the election, the opposition candidates were merely puppets who offered meager competition, and not to mention the fact that Karimov's third run for office was in violation of the country's constitution. But the election was held anyway and he won with an unsurprising 91% of the vote.

Karimov justifies his hard line policies as being necessary to counteract Islamic fundamentalism, a threat which is present in Uzbekistan. But I think Karimov is using this more as an excuse to stay in power so we'll see how it plays out.

In terms of some background information on Uzbekistan, it has 26 million people, making it the largest country in Central Asia. The majority are ethnic Uzbek and most are also Sunni Muslim. Its major economic industry is the production of cotton (second largest exporter in the world) and about 40% of the people work in agriculture. But it is also a country plagued by poverty. The unemployment rate is estimated around 20% and economic growth is dismal. Unfortunately, Karimov and his administration have done little to improve these desolate conditions.

Thus, the future of Uzbekistan is an uncertain one. Is Karimov planning to hold on to power for life? Or will he hand over power to an eventual successor? And can the country continue the way it is going right now, with its increasing levels of social and economic unrest? It seems Uzbekistan is ripe for a color revolution similar to its fellow republics of the former Soviet Union (Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan) and whether that happens is something to keep an eye on. As I've mentioned before, I am a huge supporter of democracy so hopefully authoritarian rule in Uzbekistan will become a thing of the past.

Election Review: A New Direction for South Korea

Another recent election on the international scene occurred on December 19, 2007, when South Korea elected former Seoul mayor Lee Myung-bak as its new president. Mr. Lee won the election in dominating fashion, winning 49% of the vote. His closest rival, Chung Dong-young of the reigning liberals, finished a distant second with 26%.

South Korean presidents are limited to serving one 5-year terms and thus this election was an open race battle. But Mr. Lee was able to overwhelm the field due to party divisions and a lack of quality challengers. The election of the conservative Mr. Lee also marks a new era in South Korean politics, ending 10 years of liberal rule in the presidency.

Mr. Lee is a former Hyundai executive and he has a reputation for being pragmatic and working well with others. But Mr. Lee is also plagued by ethics questions, an issue which could seriously affect his ability to govern once he is sworn into office next month.

And unfortunately the election lacked enthusiastic attention from South Korea's populace. Voter turnout hit a record low of 63% (which in the United States would be very high!) and some believe this can be attributed to the fact that Mr. Lee held the lead in the polls for such a long period and to the heavy amount of negative campaigning which occurred among the candidates. But whatever the reason, it is disappointing to watch this election pass without the usual display of enthusiasm that South Koreans display for their elections.

Mr. Lee made several boastful claims throughout the campaign and so it will be interesting to see if he can follow through on them. The main thing Mr. Lee claims he will do is bring back life into the economy, which was the most important issue during the election. Economic growth has been lackluster in South Korea the past few years and the people are hoping that Mr. Lee can turn things around. His experience in business and revitalizing the capital city of Seoul should help, but of course it will take sound economic policies to get the job done.

And it will be interesting to watch how Mr. Lee handles relations with North Korea. Will he maintain the liberals use of "Sunshine" policies or will he take a harder line? Of course this issue has been the defining feature of South Korea's foreign policy for decades and it remains to be seen what the final outcome will be. Mr. Lee is known to have pro-American leanings and this should be a boon for the United States when it comes to future negotiations among the "Six Parties" (the United States, South Korea, North Korea, Japan, Russia, and China) in relation to North Korea's nuclear arsenal.

I'll be rooting for success in South Korea, seeing how it's relatively new at this thing called democracy. It restored multi-party rule in 1987 following years of authoritarian military rule, and the country's first president after independence, Syngman Rhee, wasn't so keen on democracy either. But the country was able to endure and its example of economic development is one that all states should follow. Unfortunately, its economic miracle came at the behest of repressive authoritarian rule. But the 1990s proved it can thrive economically under democracy and so hopefully sound democratic governance under Mr. Lee will bring the country back on track.

South Korea Presidential Election Final Results

Lee Myung-bak (Grand National Party) - 49%
Chung Dong-young (United New Democratic Party) - 26%
Lee Hoi-chang (Independent) - 15%
Moon Kook-hyun (Creative Korea Party) - 6%
Kwon Young-ghil (Democratic Labour Party) - 3%