The Battle for the U.S. Senate: Getting Over the Edge

In this year's midterm election, the Democrats need six seats to win back a majority in the United States Senate. And considering the current political climate, it's not as far fetched as it sounds. However, it will still be an uphill battle because the Democrats are defending more seats. Every two years one third of the seats in the Senate are up for election and this year the Democrats are defending 18 seats to the Republicans 15. Also, there are only four open seats this year (where no incumbent is running). What favors the Democrats is the political winds seem to be blowing in their favor, and most of the seats up for grabs this year are outside of the South, which should be a big relief to them since that is where they suffered devastating losses in the 2004 election.

The big story being circulated among the analysts out there is that the Democrats have a reasonable shot of gaining five seats, but the sixth seat that they need to win control of the Senate may prove to be elusive. Those five seats where Republicans are vulnerable include the following:

Missouri
- Senator Jim Talent vs. state Auditor Claire McCaskill

Montana
- Senator Conrad Burns vs. state Senate president Jon Tester

Ohio
- Senator Mike DeWine vs. Rep. Sherrod Brown

Pennsylvania
- Senator Rick Santorum vs. state Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr.

Rhode Island
- Senator Lincoln Chafee vs. former state attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse

All of these races are projected to come down to the wire come Election Day and so a lot of attention will be paid to these races as the weeks pass by.

The sixth seat that Democrats need to win in order to take control of the Senate will probably come from one of the following:

Arizona
- Senator Jon Kyl vs. former state Democratic Party chairman Jim Pederson

Tennessee (open)
- Former mayor of Chattanooga Bob Corker (R) vs. Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D)

Virginia
- Senator George Allen vs. former Secretary of the Navy James Webb

These races have just recently been placed in the radar screen of close battles, especially the Tennessee and Virginia races.

And of course the Democrats must defend all of their vulnerable seats, which makes their effort to retake the Senate such an uphill climb. These seats include the following:

Maryland (open)
- Rep. Ben Cardin (D) vs. Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele (R)

Minnesota (open)
- Hennepin County attorney Amy Klobuchar (D) vs. Rep. Mark Kennedy (R)

New Jersey
- Senator Robert Menendez vs. state Senator Tom Kean, Jr.

Washington
- Senator Maria Cantwell vs. former insurance company CEO Mike McGavick

Currently, the seat that appears to be the most vulnerable is the New Jersey one so keep an eye out for that race.

Another noticeable race is the one in Connecticut. The Democrats are not in danger of losing this seat but the current incumbent is, Senator Joe Lieberman. The senator was defeated by Ned Lamont in the state's primary on August 8 by a vote of 52% to 48%. But election law in the state allows the senator to run as an independent in the general election and that is exactly what he is doing now.

Connecticut
Senator Joe Lieberman (I) vs. businessman Ned Lamont (D) vs. former state representative Alan Schlesinger (R)

So these are the top battles for the Senate in this year's Midterm Election. There are some other possibilities such as the Nebraska, Michigan, and West Virginia races but I will hold off on listing them because the incumbents look to be in solid position. I will update this list as time passes and you might also want to keep a look-out for the Walla, Avalos, Gross and Oca predictions, coming to you in the near future.

2006 Midterm Election Notice

I just wanted to mention that while I will do my best to provide objective coverage of the election, all of you should know that I am a Democrat and that I'm actually rooting for the Dems to win back Congress and the Statehouse seats. But of course I won't go off the deep end and say that Democrats actually have a shot in winning races such as the Alabama 1st. No, for the most part I will be realistic, and since I am in the process of collecting information you will see many posts in the near future about this year's election.

New Co-Author

I would like to take the time to welcome another new co-author, gregorczak. May he bring plenty of wisdom and knowledge to this blog.

50 State Project - California: The Main Event

I will be taking a look at my home state, the Golden State of California and its main event this year, the race for governor. As most of us know, Governor Schwarzenegger first came into office by winning the 2003 Recall election. It was just a year ago when all of the governor's ballot propositions went down in defeat and his popularity ratings sagged in the polls. Now the governor stands a good chance of getting re-elected. His Democratic opponent, State Treasurer Phil Angelides, is just not gaining enough traction because the governor is making all the right moves. He is out maneuvering his opponent by signing progressive legislation into law, which solidifies his position as the moderate candidate. Signing these bills into law helps the governor shore up the share of the Democratic vote that he needs to win in November (Democrats hold a strong edge in California's list of registered voters), and it will also bring in many independent voters to his side. And so with the combined support of a unified Republican base, the movie star governor is bound to get re-elected.

50 State Project

I will also take a look at state level battles across the entire nation. There are a plethora of governor and state legislative seats up for grabs, and of course they hold tremendous importance due to their effect on state level policies and redistricting. Will the results at the federal level trickle down to these state level battles? We will just have to wait and see.

Note: The current breakdown in governorships is 28 for Republicans and 22 for Democrats. The current breakdown in state legislative chambers is 20 for Republicans, 19 for Democrats, 10 which are split between both parties, and 1 non-partisan legislature which belongs to Nebraska.

The Battle for the U.S. Senate

Another important realm in this year's midterm election is the battle for the United States Senate. Most analysts view a changeover of power in this body to be less likely, considering the seats that are in play and the fact that the sixth seat Democrats need to retake the Senate may not exist. But if it turns out to be a tidal wave year for the Democrats, similar to the wave that swept Republicans into power in 1994, then that sixth seat may be found in the most unlikely of places.

Note: The current breakdown in the Senate is 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 1 Independent.

The Battle for the U.S. House

And so it begins. The regular campaign season is now in high gear, with hundreds of candidates across the country vying to get elected into the prestigious United States House. Who will win? Will it be the Democrats, who are hungry to become the majority party once again since losing the House in 1994. Or will it be the Republicans, who are trying to hold on to their status as the majority party. The Democrats magic number to retake the House is 15 seats. Many analysts believe it is possible for Democrats to accomplish this feat considering the current political climate, but we will have to wait and see. In the weeks to come this blog will describe the key players, candidates, campaigns, and districts in great detail, as we all count down to that fateful day, November 7.

Note: The current breakdown in the House is 231 Republicans, 201 Democrats, 1 Independent, and 2 vacancies.

New Co-Authors

I would just like to welcome a couple more new co-authors, black plague and esewolfie. Hope you enjoy their articles!