South Carolina Dem. Primary: Obama Wins Big

Senator Barack Obama was the big winner in today's South Carolina Democratic Primary. He won 55% of the vote, a clear majority and a 2-1 margin over his nearest rival, Senator Hillary Clinton. It was a needed win for Senator Obama as well, after suffering two consecutive losses in the past few weeks (New Hampshire and Nevada).

In terms of a geographical breakdown, Senator Obama nearly swept the entire board, winning every county except for Oconee and Horry. His largest margins came in the Low Country, which consist of many professionals and African Americans, important elements in Obama's electoral coalition.

And in looking at the demographics, Obama's big margin can be attributed to huge support from African American voters. They made up 55% of the electorate and Obama won them overwhelmingly with close to 80% of their vote. But he also didn't do too badly among whites. Obama won 24% of the white vote, doing better among men and actually winning whites ages 18-29.

I hope Senator Obama can carry this new found momentum into the next big contest, which of course is Tsunami Tuesday!

South Carolina Democratic Primary

Obama - 55%
Clinton - 27%
Edwards - 18%

Election Review: Karimov's Control of Uzbekistan

Another recent election on the international scene that I would like to review is Uzbekistan's presidential election which occurred on December 23, 2007. But this election was no where near being free and fair because the reality is that similar to other nations in Central Asia, Uzbekistan is an authoritarian state dominated by its president, Islam Karimov.

Karimov has been the leader of Uzbekistan since 1989, first as head of the communist party during Soviet Union control, and then as president following independence in 1991. Since then he has ruled the country with an iron fist, maintaining strict control over all state matters. He has fixed past elections in his favor and all signs indicate this election being no different. International news organizations were barred from observing the election, the opposition candidates were merely puppets who offered meager competition, and not to mention the fact that Karimov's third run for office was in violation of the country's constitution. But the election was held anyway and he won with an unsurprising 91% of the vote.

Karimov justifies his hard line policies as being necessary to counteract Islamic fundamentalism, a threat which is present in Uzbekistan. But I think Karimov is using this more as an excuse to stay in power so we'll see how it plays out.

In terms of some background information on Uzbekistan, it has 26 million people, making it the largest country in Central Asia. The majority are ethnic Uzbek and most are also Sunni Muslim. Its major economic industry is the production of cotton (second largest exporter in the world) and about 40% of the people work in agriculture. But it is also a country plagued by poverty. The unemployment rate is estimated around 20% and economic growth is dismal. Unfortunately, Karimov and his administration have done little to improve these desolate conditions.

Thus, the future of Uzbekistan is an uncertain one. Is Karimov planning to hold on to power for life? Or will he hand over power to an eventual successor? And can the country continue the way it is going right now, with its increasing levels of social and economic unrest? It seems Uzbekistan is ripe for a color revolution similar to its fellow republics of the former Soviet Union (Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan) and whether that happens is something to keep an eye on. As I've mentioned before, I am a huge supporter of democracy so hopefully authoritarian rule in Uzbekistan will become a thing of the past.

Election Review: A New Direction for South Korea

Another recent election on the international scene occurred on December 19, 2007, when South Korea elected former Seoul mayor Lee Myung-bak as its new president. Mr. Lee won the election in dominating fashion, winning 49% of the vote. His closest rival, Chung Dong-young of the reigning liberals, finished a distant second with 26%.

South Korean presidents are limited to serving one 5-year terms and thus this election was an open race battle. But Mr. Lee was able to overwhelm the field due to party divisions and a lack of quality challengers. The election of the conservative Mr. Lee also marks a new era in South Korean politics, ending 10 years of liberal rule in the presidency.

Mr. Lee is a former Hyundai executive and he has a reputation for being pragmatic and working well with others. But Mr. Lee is also plagued by ethics questions, an issue which could seriously affect his ability to govern once he is sworn into office next month.

And unfortunately the election lacked enthusiastic attention from South Korea's populace. Voter turnout hit a record low of 63% (which in the United States would be very high!) and some believe this can be attributed to the fact that Mr. Lee held the lead in the polls for such a long period and to the heavy amount of negative campaigning which occurred among the candidates. But whatever the reason, it is disappointing to watch this election pass without the usual display of enthusiasm that South Koreans display for their elections.

Mr. Lee made several boastful claims throughout the campaign and so it will be interesting to see if he can follow through on them. The main thing Mr. Lee claims he will do is bring back life into the economy, which was the most important issue during the election. Economic growth has been lackluster in South Korea the past few years and the people are hoping that Mr. Lee can turn things around. His experience in business and revitalizing the capital city of Seoul should help, but of course it will take sound economic policies to get the job done.

And it will be interesting to watch how Mr. Lee handles relations with North Korea. Will he maintain the liberals use of "Sunshine" policies or will he take a harder line? Of course this issue has been the defining feature of South Korea's foreign policy for decades and it remains to be seen what the final outcome will be. Mr. Lee is known to have pro-American leanings and this should be a boon for the United States when it comes to future negotiations among the "Six Parties" (the United States, South Korea, North Korea, Japan, Russia, and China) in relation to North Korea's nuclear arsenal.

I'll be rooting for success in South Korea, seeing how it's relatively new at this thing called democracy. It restored multi-party rule in 1987 following years of authoritarian military rule, and the country's first president after independence, Syngman Rhee, wasn't so keen on democracy either. But the country was able to endure and its example of economic development is one that all states should follow. Unfortunately, its economic miracle came at the behest of repressive authoritarian rule. But the 1990s proved it can thrive economically under democracy and so hopefully sound democratic governance under Mr. Lee will bring the country back on track.

South Korea Presidential Election Final Results

Lee Myung-bak (Grand National Party) - 49%
Chung Dong-young (United New Democratic Party) - 26%
Lee Hoi-chang (Independent) - 15%
Moon Kook-hyun (Creative Korea Party) - 6%
Kwon Young-ghil (Democratic Labour Party) - 3%

South Carolina GOP Primary: The Mac is Truly Back

Senator John McCain redeemed his South Carolina defeat in 2000 by winning a narrow victory over former Governor Mike Huckabee, 33% to 30%. Former Senator Fred Thompson finished a distant 3rd with 16% and former Governor Mitt Romney finished right behind with 15%.

It took 8 years but Senator McCain was finally able to win South Carolina. Historically, the state has a good track record of selecting the Republican nominee and so McCain's victory certainly bodes well for his chances of winning the nomination.

And just to note, McCain's comeback is truly amazing. He was far behind in the polls only a few weeks ago and he was pretty much left for dead last summer when his campaign manager and some of his top aides resigned. But the senator demonstrated great resiliency and I believe his victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina will go down as one of the greatest political comebacks of all time.

I think the biggest factors contributing to McCain's victory in South Carolina was the strong turnout of military veterans and the presence of former Senator Fred Thompson in the race. According to exit polls, a quarter of the electorate said they had served in the military and of those voters, a solid 36% voted for McCain. It also appears Thompson's presence chipped into Huckabee's support among Christian evangelical voters, which was evident in key counties such as Greenville County.

Sorry, I don't have time to do a detailed breakdown by congressional district like before so I'll just do a quick one instead.

Huckabee won in the Up Country and for the most part this area consist of South Carolina districts 3, 4, and 5. South Carolina 4 stands out because this is the Greenville/Spartanburg district, home to a large number of Christian evangelicals and conservative Bob Jones University. But Huckabee did not win the Up Country overwhelmingly and as a result, he ended up losing statewide.

McCain did very well in the Low Country and this area consist of South Carolina districts 1, 2, and 6. He really piled up his margins in counties such as Charleston and Beaufort, winning big among key groups such as military veterans and white-collar professionals.

The split between the socially conservative Up Country and the economically conservative Low Country is a historical one in South Carolina GOP primaries and as the results demonstrate, the Low Country won this time due to McCain's coalition of economic and foreign policy conservatives.

To be quite honest, I thought Huckabee would win South Carolina due to the large presence of Christian evangelical voters. This voting bloc propelled Huckabee to victory in Iowa and I was sure it would happen again in this state, which is one of the most socially conservative states in the union. But it was not to be for McCain proved his mettle by winning the state in dramatic fashion. He looked so happy during his victory speech and he had good reason to be happy too, due to his past history in the Palmetto State.

There is no doubt that Senator Obama is my top choice for president but if Senator McCain becomes the Republican nominee, I would have to think twice because the senator from Arizona is my favorite Republican. I disagree with the senator on several issues but overall what I really admire about McCain is his straight-talking style and his desire to improve the state of politics, similar to Senator Obama's call for a "New Politics." Anyway, this victory puts Senator McCain in great position for the next big Republican battle, the Florida Primary, so let's see what happens!

South Carolina Republican Primary

McCain - 33%
Huckabee - 30%
Thompson - 16%
Romney - 15%
Paul - 4%
Giuliani - 2%

Nevada Caucus: Clinton Triumphs Again

In an election where no one knew what to expect, Senator Hillary Clinton prevailed once again over Senator Barack Obama, by a vote of 51% to 45%. Former Senator John Edwards finished in 3rd place with a meager 4% of the vote, making Nevada for all intents and purposes a two-person race.

I have to admit, I was pretty disappointed by the outcome (remember, I'm supporting Senator Obama for president). Due to the fact that Obama won the endorsement of the influential Culinary Workers Union, I thought he had a great shot of winning Nevada. But I guess they were not influential enough as the political machine of Rory Reid, the son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and former President Bill Clinton's campaigning help propel Hillary to victory.

The task of winning elections is all about building coalitions of voters and you do so by taking into account a number of factors such as income, gender, education levels, party affiliation, and race. Exit polls are a good tool to use when building your coalition, and in Nevada's case they reveal some intriguing numbers which may prove detrimental to Obama's campaign. Unfortunately, Senator Obama loss the white and all-important Hispanic vote by large margins. Clinton won whites, 52% to 34%, and Hispanics, 64% to 26%. The results of the Hispanic vote is worrisome to me because they are an essential voting bloc in Tsunami Tuesday states such as Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and of course the big enchilada, California. If they break towards Clinton the way they did in Nevada, and if she gains a similar percentage of white voters, then she will be unstoppable. Thus, Obama has to find a way to chip into her support among Hispanics and whites by February 5 or else he's going home.

But there is also some good news for Senator Obama. It looks like he is solidifying the African American vote behind him, for he won their vote by a gigantic margin in Nevada, 83% to 14%. The fact that Obama could be the first African American president undoubtedly plays to his advantage among black voters. The senator continues to win among independents as well and that is something he will need to do once Tsunami Tuesday rolls around.

Let's take a closer look at the results by breaking it down by congressional district.

Nevada 1: Las Vegas
Clinton took Clark County overall, winning it 54% against Obama's 44%. The most intriguing battle here was along the famous Las Vegas "Strip", where special caucus sites were set up to accommodate culinary workers. These sites were held in famous Las Vegas hotels such as Cesar's Palace, the Wynn, Bellagio, MGM Grand, and the Flamingo. Some thought these sites would go heavily for Obama but in the end they didn't. Clinton's campaign did a great job organizing and with the help of Hispanic support, she won seven of the nine caucus sites on the Strip.

Nevada 2: Reno, Carson City, and the "Cow Counties"
Senator Obama did much better in this district, taking major population centers such as Washoe County (Reno) by a vote of 50% to 41%. Obama basically won across Nevada's northern tier and he even took conservative Elko County by a big margin, 63% to 31%. The following paragraph from this January 21st post from First Read explains how Obama won this rural county:

"When Obama mentioned the tiny town of Elko, which he won by a huge margin, he was both accurate and his comment reflected a huge organizing effort on the part of his campaign to reach out to rural voters, independents and Republicans. The campaign started organizing in places like Elko in the fall, which is smack down in the center of the northern part of the state and it feels like you're stepping onto the set of "Fargo" when you go there. Investing resources there may seem like a lark, after all as one resident put it before the Obama office arrived there wasn't a political office there for "as long as anyone can remember." But Elko had two organizers, and the investment paid off because Obama was able to win in those rural areas which ultimately helped him gain the delegate advantage in Nevada."

That last point is important to note because if the delegate preferences remain unchanged until the final selection process in April, Obama will barely edge out Clinton in the race for delgates, 13 to 12. I know it must be somewhat confusing but just know that it has something to do with the fact that rural counties are given a little more weight in the distribution of delegates. So similar to the Electoral College, Clinton won the popular vote but lost the delegate vote to Obama.

Nevada 3: Las Vegas Suburbs
It looks like Clinton won this district as well because as mentioned, she won Clark County overall 54% to 44%. And I suspect that Rory Reid's voter turnout operation also made the difference in this competitive district.

So there you go, Clinton won Clark County and several counties in the south while the northern half went primarily to Obama. And even though Obama won the delegate count, what matters more is the headline of Clinton winning Nevada's popular vote. This gives her great momentum going into future contests and unfortunately, it sets up a must-win situation for Obama in South Carolina. So on we go to the South!

Nevada Democratic Caucus Final Results

Clinton - 51%
Obama - 45%
Edwards - 4%

Nevada Caucus: Romney Wins in a Blowout

I was a little taken aback at the results of the Nevada Republican Caucus because former Governor Mitt Romney won a crushing victory with 51% of the vote! His nearest rival was Rep. Ron Paul with a meager 14%. Senator John McCain finished a close third with 13%.

I thought that Rep. Paul would do well and he did by finishing in 2nd place, which is his best showing yet. But it was a distant 2nd place and so this lackluster result probably ends any chance of Rep. Paul winning the Republican nomination. Sorry, Music/Website Directory (whose identity can be discovered by visiting our website) but unless some miracle happens, Ron Paul won't become the next president of the United States.

Romney's striking victory can be attributed to several factors but two that stand out for me are the candidates time spent in Nevada and the large turnout of Mormon voters. As I mentioned in a previous post, Romney and Paul were the only candidates that gave any significant attention to Nevada because the rest of the field focused their efforts on the historically important state of South Carolina (whose primary was held on the same day as Nevada's contest). And since Romney had the financial resources to set up an effective ground operation in Nevada, this advantage was reflected in the state's final results. The other factor that really benefited Romney was the large presence of Mormon voters (don't forget, Romney is the first major Mormon candidate running for president). There is a sizable Mormon population in Nevada and the exit polls showed them coming out in droves on Saturday, for they made up 26% of the total electorate. And of that 26%, an astonishing 95% voted for Romney!

What I would like to do now is look at the results by congressional district, which is a major part of the Prez game (actually, Prez 1.0 will consist of regions, but the congressional districts will make up those regions). But I should note that my analysis of Nevada's results through districts will be somewhat rough due to the fact that election results are presented primarily by county. Though with the help of maps it's still possible so let's get to it!

Nevada 1: Las Vegas
This is the Las Vegas district. It has a PVI of D+9, meaning it has a solid Democratic lean to it. It's large base of unionized service workers is a major reason why it leans to the left. But of course Republicans are still able to gain votes here and Romney dominated Clark County (where Las Vegas resides) by winning 58% of its vote.

Nevada 2: Reno, Carson City, and the "Cow Counties"
This district consist of the rural areas of Nevada, plus its other gambling center, Reno, and the state capital, Carson City. With a PVI of R +8, it is the political counterweight to Nevada 1. It is also a district which Romney won decisively. He did especially well in the eastern counties of Elko, White Pine, and Lincoln, where many of the state's Mormons live.

Nevada 3: Las Vegas suburbs
This is the most politically competitive district in the state due to its PVI of D +1 and it consist of a mix of people such as conservative new arrivals, senior citizens, white-collar workers, union workers, and Mormons. The Mormon presence probably played a major role in helping Romney win Clark County, thus helping him to win the state overall.

A special thanks goes out to the The Almanac of American Politics 2008 and CQ's Politics in America 2008 because most of our research come from these two vital sources. That's it for now but stay tune for the Democratic results!

Nevada Republican Caucus Final Results

Romney - 51%
Paul - 14%
McCain - 13%
Huckabee - 8%
Thompson - 8%
Giuliani - 4%
Hunter - 2%

Election Review: Which Way is Kyrgyzstan Going?

Another recent election on the international scene occurred in the Central Asian country of Kyrgyzstan, which held its parliamentary elections on December 16, 2007. President Kurmanbek Bakiyev called the election three years ahead of schedule and as a result his party, Ak Zhol (True Path), won an overwhelming victory with 49% of the vote. The opposition party, Ata Meken, finished with a paltry 9% of the vote. But due to complicated election rules where certain regional thresholds had to be met, the Ak Zhol party received 71 seats in the new parliament, the Social Democrats received 11 seats, and the Communists received 8 seats.

In terms of some background information, Kyrgyzstan has a population of 5 million people and the capital city is Bishkek. It is also a former republic of the Soviet Union and it gained its independence after the USSR's collapse in 1991. The biggest historical event in recent years was the Tulip Revolution of 2005, when former president and leader since independence Askar Akayev was forced out of power due to mass protests (the color revolution has been a common trend among former Soviet republics). Bakiyev was elected in his place but he has had problems of his own since coming to office, in particular his protracted conflict with the country's parliament.

Some political analysts believe Bakiyev called this election early in order to consolidate his power and that appears to be the case. Bakiyev's party is now the dominant party in parliament and so he could probably implement many of his long-desired reforms. But it also appears that Bakiyev got his overwhelming majority in an unfair manner. International observers state the presence of widespread violations and with the election results being the way that they are, it is hard to argue against those claims.

That is very unfortunate too because Kyrgyzstan is considered by many to be Central Asia's best hope for democracy. I hope these violations are not a sign of things to come because it would be a shame to watch Bakiyev take his country onto an authoritarian path. Central Asia already has enough authoritarian rulers; what it could use even more are pluralistic and thriving democracies led by leaders who follow the rule of law and so I hope Bakiyev can be that leader.

Can Ron Paul Win Nevada?

The Music/Website Director of Prez Games LLC is a big fan of Republican presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and so I thought I would take the time to discuss Paul's chances in tomorrow's contests. Rep. Paul has no chance of winning South Carolina because all of the major candidates have been focusing on it and with its base of social and foreign policy conservatives, it just isn't his kind of state.

On the other hand, Paul does have an outside chance of winning Nevada. There is an opening here because as I said, all of the major candidates have been focusing their efforts on South Carolina. And only two candidates have given significant attention to Nevada, former Governor Mitt Romney and of course, Rep. Ron Paul.

It appears that Romney has built a campaign operation capable of winning Nevada and since there is a significant Mormon population in Nevada, he might very well pull it off. But Paul has a committed corps of volunteers at his disposal and I am sure they are knocking on thousands of doors in places such as Las Vegas, Reno, and Henderson.

Nevada also has a strong libertarian tradition and that should help Paul, a strong libertarian himself and the presidential nominee of the Libertarian Party in 1988. Rep. Paul also won a Nevada straw poll back in October, winning it by a substantial margin. Paul received 33%, Romney 16%, and Hunter 15%. This victory shows that Paul has the ability to do well in Nevada and so I think he will make a strong showing in tomorrow's caucus's.

Election Review: Venezuela Turns Down Chavez Proposals

Another recent election in the international scene occurred on December 2, 2007 when the power expanding proposals of Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez were narrowly turned down by a vote of 51% to 49%. It was the first time Chavez experienced electoral defeat, meaning that future progress of his "Bolivarian Revolution" is now in question.

And thank goodness too. Yes, even though I tend to lean left when it comes to my politics, it's more of a center-left and so I can't say that I am found of Mr. Chavez's socialist revolution. Some of my friends might be surprised to hear me say this but the fact is I really mean it. This rejection of Chavez's proposals was certainly needed because it seemed Chavez was heading on a path towards complete authoritarian rule.

If enacted, the proposals that Chavez put forward would have eliminated presidential term limits and they would have greatly centralized power into the hands of the president. Venezuela would have basically become another Cuba and well...the truth is I can't stand authoritarian rule. Yes, I am a believer in democracy and in the ability of a republic or constitutional monarchy to govern and follow the will of the people and as a result, I really look down on anything that smells of authoritarianism, whether on the far right or on the far left.

Events over the past year prove that Chavez has been heading in this direction. Chavez tried to force his party's coalition partners into one single party to make it like the communist party of Cuba and he also refused to renew the broadcasting license of the main opposition television channel, showing his lack of respect for opposition voices to be heard.

And of course, the proposed changes to 69 of the 350 articles in the constitution was the biggest signal that Chavez was heading towards complete authoritarian rule. This excerpt from an article in The New York Times entitled "Venezuela Vote Sets Roadblocks on Chávez Path" provides some examples of what might happen if his proposals were implemented:

"Opponents, meanwhile, warned that the proposed changes would have made Mr. Chávez even more authoritarian than they say he already is. One of the 69 amendments, for instance, would have allowed Mr. Chávez to create new administrative regions, governed by vice presidents chosen by him. Others would have given him the power to declare states of emergency for unlimited periods and increase the state’s hand in the economy."

So thankfully these proposals were not enacted because they would have led to drastic changes for Venezuela. Of course, it could be argued that Chavez is not so authoritarian as people think because he did respect the results of this election. But my gut instinct says he really wants his proposals enacted and so he will probably find another way to get it done. Or he might just wait and hold another referendum election sometime before the scheduled end of his term in 2013.

I think Chavez would rather gain authoritarian power through a referendum so that he can do what Palpatine did in the Star Wars movies, which is receive authoritarian powers through legitimate institutional means. And if Chavez were to ever obtain full authoritarian powers, well, I think we could say good-bye to democracy in Venezuela. But in this election democracy prevailed and I hope it does for years to come. I also hope it gets better leadership because many of its people are still impoverished and I'm not so sure that socialism is the way to get there. Reading The End of Poverty by Jeffrey Sachs has been a real eye-opener for me and so I think a visit from Mr. Sachs should be in order for Venezuela.

Election Review: Putin's Control of Russia

There are some recent elections on the international scene that I would like to review and the first one I would like to discuss is the parliamentary elections held in Russia on December 2, 2007. Well, to say it was a free and fair election is far from the truth. The truth is that President Vladimir V. Putin has complete political control over his country. His party, United Russia, won the election with an overwhelming 64% of the vote, giving it about 315 seats in the 450-seat Duma (the lower house of the Russian parliament).

But all accounts by international observers say the election results were rigged, with ballot boxes being stuffed, people voting multiple times, the threat of blackmail hanging over people's heads, the use of bribes to pump up voter turnout, and other corrupt measures which were designed to ensure a crushing victory for Putin's party. This is just one of many authoritarian acts undertaken by Putin, for he has also taken control of the media by silencing voices of opposition, and he has taken control of the appointment of regional governors, ensuring that all political power resides in the Kremlin. I wonder what Boris Yeltsin would make of all this. Is this what he envisioned when he appointed the then unknown Putin to be his successor in 1999?

The funny part is Putin had high approval ratings and so he probably would have won the election anyway. But as one commentator in a CNN Special on Russia said, Putin is a "Control Freak" and so he is unwilling to take any chances, not even with his own people who at the moment adore him. True, the country is doing well economically but I think much of that can be attributed to Russia's vast oil reserves. Once oil prices start declining and the economy slows down, what will the people of Russia think of Putin then?

But in the long-term, it appears that Putin's authoritarian rule is here to stay. Due to the nation's constitution, Putin is not allowed to serve a third consecutive term in office so at least he respected this rule by endorsing deputy prime minister Dmitry Medvedev to run as his successor in Russia's presidential election this coming March. But come on, I think we all know that if elected, or perhaps I should say when elected, Medvedev will be nothing more than a puppet president. The following fact says it all. Medvedev asked Putin to serve as prime minister once he is elected, and of course Putin said yes (I would bet a hundred dollars that it was actually an order given by Putin rather than this phony request portrayed in the news).

I suppose this means that the office of prime minister will become more powerful than the presidency once Medvedev is elected, or Medvedev might step down in a few months time to pave the way for another Putin presidency, which would be legal under the country's constitution. So let's all brace ourselves for what looks to be several more years of Putin's control of Russia.

Michigan Primary: Romney Strikes Back!

What is going on here!?! Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee won the Iowa Caucuses. Arizona Senator John McCain won the New Hampshire Primary. And now, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has just won the Michigan Primary! Wow! This shows that the battle for the Republican presidential nomination is truly a wide open battle!

The spotlight was on the Republicans tonight because due to a ruling made by the Democratic National Committee (DNC), Michigan's Democratic Primary essentially did not count. It's a complicated story but all you need to know is that the DNC was angry at Michigan for scheduling its primary before February 5th and so it punished the state by taking away all of its convention delegates, thus making Michigan's primary irrelevant. The Democratic candidates complied with the ruling by completely ignoring the state and of the major candidates running, only Senator Clinton's name appeared on the ballot. In looking at last night's results, it is interesting to note that Clinton received 55% of the vote while uncommitted (those who would have probably voted for Obama or Edwards) received 40%. But like I said, the candidates did not pay any attention to the state and so sadly for Michigan Democrats, their contest was for the most part meaningless.

But let's get back to the Republicans because they certainly made Michigan's primary relevant by giving the state its full attention (though the Republican National Committee (RNC) still penalized Michigan by taking away half of its delegates). It was primarily a battle among the winners of the first three contests: McCain, Huckabee, and Romney (yes, Romney as well because don't forget that he won Wyoming!). McCain, who had just won New Hampshire the week before, had history going for him in Michigan. During his first run for president in 2000, McCain won the state by defeating then Governor George W. Bush. Huckabee hoped to do well by winning the vote of social conservatives in western Michigan and by preaching his economic populist message in a state that is definitely in need of economic reform. And of course there was Romney, where even though he served as governor of Massachusetts, his true roots lie in the Wolverine State of Michigan. Romney was born and raised in the state and his family has strong ties to it as well due to the fact that his father, George Romney, served as governor of Michigan from 1963 to 1969.

So each of the big three had something going for him in Michigan. They campaigned across the whole state and each candidate expressed their respective campaign messages with vigor and passion. I have to give Senator McCain a lot of credit because as usual, he campaigned by invoking his straight-talking message, not merely pandering but telling the people of Michigan what he believed to be the truth. He told the people that some of their old auto jobs would never return and that new jobs would need to be created in order to help those left behind. I definitely agree with this statement because after reading The World Is Flat by Thomas Friedman and taking a couple of economic classes last semester, I now realize that in order for a nation to reach its full potential in terms of economic development, it has to let go of its old industries and create new ones. It has to focus on creating new innovate jobs because doing so will lead to greater productivity and hence, higher standards of living! This is especially true in the world we live in today where globalization requires us to be as competitive as possible. So as Thomas Friedman would say, we need this to be a race to the top, not the bottom, and Senator McCain's campaign speeches in Michigan certainly reflected this idea. Sorry for getting a little side-tracked here but I just had to complement Senator McCain for his ideas. Keep on straight-talking, Senator!

Unfortunately, the straight-talking did not help McCain's bid in the Wolverine State and Huckabee's populist message did not help his case either because as mentioned, Romney pulled through with a victory in Michigan. He won in convincing manner as well, winning the state by 9 percentage points and sweeping the population centers and the eastern half of the state. One interesting fact to point out from the exit polls is that 42% of the voters thought Romney's ties to Michigan were important. Among that 42% of voters, 58% voted for Romney, and I think this proved decisive in swinging the Wolverine state to its native son. This also shows that home state status truly matters, which is something you can discover in our presidential election computer game.

And as a die-hard political junkie, I must say that these past couple of weeks have been truly exciting. I just haven't seen anything like it before. These primary races usually end in a short period of time but with the way things are going right now, we could be in for a very long battle.

This is especially the case for the Republicans because as you notice, in every state there has been a different winner. At this point, there are multiple front-runners with Huckabee, McCain, and Romney, with the potential for more. Of course I am referring to former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Thompson has to win South Carolina this weekend to be viable and Giuliani is in a similar situation because he has to win Florida in order to have any chance. If both of these scenarios occur...oh for crying out loud, I'll just go crazy!

The battle for the Democratic nomination is wide open as well but their field of candidates have been narrowed down to the big three, Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. Some might argue that Edwards should not be included in this list but I am not counting him out yet. If he does poorly in Nevada and South Carolina, then yes, I will count him out at that time but as New Hampshire proved, you just don't know what might happen next.

Anyway, here are the results from the Michigan Primary and please stay tuned for analysis of this Saturday's contests in Nevada and South Carolina.

Michigan Primary Final Results

Republicans
Romney - 39%
McCain - 30%
Huckabee - 16%
Paul - 6%
Thompson - 4%
Giuliani - 3%

Democrats
Clinton - 55%
Uncommitted - 40%
Kucinich - 4%

New Blog Name: The Prez Political Report

Hello! I have decided to change the name of this blog to The Prez Political Report so that way it will become a part of the entrepreneurial project I'm involved with known as Prez Games LLC. Of course I will stick to my regular routine of discussing campaigns and elections in the U.S. and across the world but now I will also include posts about the game we are creating (Prez) and posts of any future projects which we may endeavor upon. I hope you guys like the new format and so please stay tuned!

New Hampshire Primary: Shocking Upset!

Wow! Last night's election results for the Democratic race was truly shocking. Almost all the polls had Senator Obama winning New Hampshire and yet it was not to be. Senator Hillary Clinton roared back in dramatic style and won the nation's first primary in a squeaker. I have never seen all the polls and pundits be so wrong and so last night's results were truly amazing. As I watched them come in last night, following the news with my laptop in hand and my easel board at the side, I dismissed the early results not knowing what was to come. And then the numbers continued to show Clinton leading with a small 2-3 percent margin over Obama and alas, that gap would prove to be the final result. It appears that Clinton's emotional moment the day before helped her substantially and she also benefited from big support among women, older voters, and the Democratic base in New Hampshire.

As for the Republican side, my favorite Republican, Senator John McCain, came away with a strong victory over former Governor Mitt Romney. It was only a few months ago where most people left McCain for dead and so I was happy to watch the senator make this comeback victory. Just like in 2000, the independents of New Hampshire launched McCain to victory and so this should put him in great position for next Tuesday's Michigan Primary.

The nomination battles for both parties are now wide open and it will be very exciting to see what happens next.

New Hampshire Primary Final Results

Democrats
Clinton - 39%
Obama - 37%
Edwards - 17%
Richardson - 5%
Kucinich - 1%

Republicans
McCain - 37%
Romney - 32%
Huckabee - 11%
Giuliani - 9%
Paul - 8%
Thompson - 1%

Prez: The Game of Presidential Conquest

I should mention that while I've been away, I've been taking part in a little entrepreneurial project known as Prez. The following describes what this project is all about:

"Prez! is an online presidential election strategy game where ultimate control is in your hands. In this game you play the role of the campaign manager, taking command of a vast army of volunteers, campaign captains, millions of dollars, and of course your presidential ticket."

An old friend of mine asked me to join him in this endeavor and since I thought it would be really intriguing...I signed up. This project originally started out as a board game but of course with the internet exploding all around us we realized that the online world would be the best route for our game. Working on this project has been a great experience thus far and I've gotten to meet great new people such as Sam, Kwame, and Alexander (you can check out their profiles on our website). We have even created our own little company due to this project and so we're now calling ourselves Prez Games LLC. And once we release Prez sometime this summer, we plan on creating future projects that have an educational theme. There is another election game I have in mind which we might create and well, all I can say for now is that it is a game that truly reaches a global scale. But in the meantime, please look out for Prez this summer!

For more information about our game you can check out our website at PrezGame.com

My Return: The U.S. Presidential Primary Battle

Hello! I'm back and I just thought I would take another crack at this blogging thing. My interest in politics has shifted big-time towards international relations and comparative politics but of course I will still pay attention to the biggest event this year, the United States Presidential Election. The presidential primaries have just started and they are shaping up as one heck of a battle royal.

On the Democratic side, it appears that Senator Barack Obama is gaining a lot of momentum due to his win in the Iowa Caucus. I have to admit, I am supporting Senator Obama for president and so I was very happy to watch him win last Thursday. He won Iowa in convincing fashion and he did it in an amazing manner by pulling in first-time caucus goers, independents, and even some Republicans. I think the fact that Senator Hillary Clinton finished third was very detrimental to her campaign and I think Senator John Edwards staved off elimination by finishing second, albeit by a narrow margin. The New Hampshire Primary is coming very soon, in fact, it's this Tuesday and so the big question is, "Can Senator Obama's momentum carry over with a victory in the Granite State?" I certainly hope so and I hope all of you will be watching with me.

On the Republican side, we have more of a battle royal here. Former Governor Mike Huckabee won Iowa convincingly with great help from his evangelical base in the western part of the state. The final result must have been disappointing for former Governor Mitt Romney, who spent so much money in the state but ended up finishing second. Huckabee's victory is good news for Senator John McCain because since McCain and Romney are running neck-and-neck in the polls in New Hampshire, it diminishes Romney's prospects for victory on Tuesday. Romney did recover somewhat by winning the Republican Wyoming Caucus on Saturday but since hardly any media coverage was given to that event, it remains to be seen if it will have any positive effect for him. And even though Huckabee won Iowa, it is likely he won't get any significant bounce heading into New Hampshire because for some reason the voters in that state doesn't like voting for southerners all that much. So the big question for the Republican battle is, "Can McCain recapture the magic from 2000 and win New Hampshire once again?" And "Can Romney recover by winning New Hampshire, thus grabbing the momentum mantle?" We'll have to wait until Tuesday to find out.